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Prediction for CME (2024-04-23T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-23T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30248/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. It may be associated with an eruption triggered by the M2.9 flare peaking at 2024-04-23T17:44Z from AR 3638, which also may have been associated with CME with ID: 2024-04-23T18:12:00-CME-001. The opening field lines appear to widen at 2024-04-23T17:51Z, which may be associated with this CME. It is analyzed as a separate feature from CME: 2024-04-23T18:12:00-CME-001 due to the difference in speed and apparent separate leading edge.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-27T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Event id="397"

# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40424
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Apr 2024, 1304UT
SIDC FORECAST
...
Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by LASCO/C2 during the UTC night of April 23rd suggests no expected impact on Earth. A slow partial halo CME is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 18:00 UTC on April 23rd. The CME is propagating to the south-west and has an estimated projected velocity around 400 km/s. The eruption appears related to the M2.9 flare, peak time 17:44 UTC on April 23rd, produced by NOAA AR 3638. An associated type II radio emission was observed starting at 17:10 UTC on April 23rd with estimated velocity of 358 km/s. Analysis of this event suggests no to possibly very low impact on Earth late on April 27th.
No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 49.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-04-25T15:21Z

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